Sunday December 1st 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
1:00pm EST
Bet Type: Spread
Pick: PIT Steelers +3
Odds: -110
Risk Amount: 2 Units
Pittsburgh heads to Cincinnati as a 3 point road dog in this match up after losing to the Browns in the snow. Before letting that one get away, they had been winners of 5 in a row.
Cincinnati is coming off a bye and is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
I expect the top 7 ranked Pittsburgh defense to give Joe Burrow and his team some problems. Although the offense is formidable, this Bengals team has shown an inability to close out games for various reasons. For one, they struggle to get any kind of running game going, making their offense extremely one dimensional. This, of course, has resulted in Joe Burrow enduring 26 sacks and 43 QB hits (the third most).
The Bengals special teams have been less than dependable as well, with kicker McPherson ranking in the bottom of the league for field goals made percentage. This is a huge factor in close games. Especially 3 point games.
Historically, Pittsburgh just finds a way to win in these types of games. This season, the Bengals have struggled to finish close games. The Steelers defense will not allow them any errors. Especially in the pass rush.
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are 21-11 ATS (65.6%) as underdogs coming off a loss and 28-17-2 ATS as a road underdog since 2015. This is a huge stat that to me, cannot be ignored.
I have to take the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers here.
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