UFC 312 takes place tonight in Sydney, Australia.
The rematch between Driscus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland will headline the PPV card.
My best bet on this card is a prelim fight between Tom Nolan (8-1-0) and Viascheslav Borshchev(8-4-1). Tom Nolan is entering the fight after consecutive victories against Victor Martinez and Alex Reyes and hails from Australia. Borshchev, coming off a split decision and submission loss, fights out of California with team Alpha Male. That's roughly a 15 hour flight for "Slava Claus" which has proven to be a daunting task for fighters in past events in Australia.
Borshchev's last fight was a close split decision win against James LLontop (14-5-0). But the submission loss against Chase Hooper is what concerns me. He got outstruck badly by Hooper who is a jiu jitsu fighter not exactly known for his striking abilty. Hooper at 6'1" had his way with Slava on the feet dropping him in the first round and rocking him badly multiple times.
When the fight went to the ground, Chase took control, and Slava Claus was completely out of his element. Getting beaten with punches and hard elbows from Hooper. Eventually, Hooper sunk in a darce and the referree stopped the fight as Borshchev protested. Regardless of whether he tapped out, he was being severely beaten, and the fight's outcome was unavoidable.
Now, Borshchev has to face a 6'3" striker in Tom Nolan.
If he could'nt get inside on a lower level striker who is not as tall, I dont think he does it here. Look for Nolan to rock Borshchev, and if he drops him and gets on top, Slava Claus is not getting up until the round is over. I think the decline of Viascheslav is becoming more apparant in each of his last few fights. Now I have to factor in the crowd reaction and judges score cards for the home fighter. I beleive unless Borshchev knocks Tom Nolan out (entirely possible) there is no other path to victory.
Take the home fighter on the moneyline who seems to be on a completey different trajectory from his opponent tonight.
